\u3000\u3000\u200d<\/p>\n
\n\u6e90\u81ea\u300a\u91d1\u94b1\u5fc3\u7406\u5b66\u300b [\u7f8e] \u6469\u6839 \u00b7 \u8c6a\u6cfd\u5c14 (Mogan Housel) \u8457,<\/em> \u674e\u9752\u5b97 \u8bd1<\/em> \u7b2c 17 \u7ae0<\/p>\n
\u611f\u60f3\u7b80\u8bb0\uff1a<\/strong><\/p>\n
We tend to overestimate the effect of a technology in the short run and underestimate the effect in the long run .<\/p>\n
\u6211\u4eec\u603b\u662f\u9ad8\u4f30\u4e00\u9879\u79d1\u6280\u6240\u5e26\u6765\u7684\u77ed\u671f\u6548\u76ca\uff0c\u5374\u53c8\u4f4e\u4f30\u5b83\u7684\u957f\u671f\u5f71\u54cd\u3002<\/p>\n
\u2014\u2014 Roy Amara<\/p>\n
\u200d<\/p>\n
\u7092\u4f5c\u5468\u671f\u5e26\u6765\u5d29\u6e83\u548c\u60b2\u89c2\u4e3b\u4e49\uff0c\u800c\u53d1\u5c55\u5468\u671f\u4e5f\u5fc5\u5c06\u8ba9\u4e50\u89c2\u4e3b\u4e49\u62ac\u5934\u3002\u91d1\u878d\u7684\u80fd\u529b\u672c\u5c31\u6e90\u81ea\u4eba\u7c7b\u5ba2\u89c2\u751f\u4ea7\u89c4\u5f8b\uff0c\u57fa\u4e8e\u590d\u5229\u548c\u811a\u8e0f\u5b9e\u5730\u7684\u8fed\u4ee3\uff0c\u548c\u6bcf\u4e2a\u4eba\u4e0d\u6ee1\u8db3\u4e8e\u73b0\u51b5\u6323\u624e\u65f6\u7684\u4e3b\u89c2\u80fd\u52a8\u6027\u3002<\/p>\n
\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u4e22\u6389\u81ea\u66b4\u81ea\u5f03\uff0c\u66f4\u52a0\u5ba2\u89c2\u5730\u770b\u5f85\u811a\u4e0b\u7684\u6bcf\u4e00\u6b65\u5427 \u221a<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n
\u3000\u3000\u200d<\/p>\n
\u3000\u3000\u200d<\/p>\n
\u60b2\u89c2\u4e3b\u4e49\u7684\u8bf1\u60d1<\/strong><\/h1>\n
\u3000\u3000\u200d<\/p>\n
\u3000\u3000\u4e50\u89c2\u4e3b\u4e49\u5c31\u50cf\u82b1\u8a00\u5de7\u8bed\u7684\u63a8\u9500\u5458\uff0c\u800c\u60b2\u89c2\u4e3b\u4e49\u4eff\u4f5b\u63d0\u4f9b\u5e2e\u52a9\u7684\u597d\u5fc3\u4eba\u3002<\/p>\n
\u3000\u3000\u200d<\/p>\n
\n\u51fa\u4e8e\u4e00\u4e9b\u6211\u65e0\u6cd5\u7406\u89e3\u7684\u539f\u56e0\uff0c\u4eba\u4eec\u603b\u559c\u6b22\u542c\u522b\u4eba\u8bf4\u8fd9\u4e2a\u4e16\u754c\u8981\u5b8c\u86cb\u4e86\u3002<\/p>\n
\u2014\u2014 \u7ecf\u6d4e\u53f2\u5b66\u5bb6 \u6234\u5c14\u5fb7\u4e3d \u00b7 \u9ea6\u514b\u6d1b\u65af\u57fa\uff08Deirdre McCloskey\uff09<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n
\u3000\u3000\u5bf9\u7edd\u5927\u591a\u6570\u4eba\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u4fdd\u6301\u4e50\u89c2\u90fd\u662f\u6700\u597d\u7684\u9009\u62e9\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u8fd9\u4e2a\u4e16\u754c\u5728\u5927\u591a\u65f6\u5019\u5bf9\u5927\u591a\u6570\u4eba\u6765\u8bf4\u90fd\u662f\u8d8a\u53d8\u8d8a\u597d\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n
\u3000\u3000\u4e0d\u8fc7\uff0c\u60b2\u89c2\u60c5\u7eea\u5728\u6211\u4eec\u5fc3\u4e2d\u5360\u6709\u7279\u6b8a\u7684\u4f4d\u7f6e\u3002\u60b2\u89c2\u60c5\u7eea\u4e0d\u4ec5\u6bd4\u4e50\u89c2\u60c5\u7eea\u66f4\u666e\u904d\uff0c\u542c\u8d77\u6765\u4e5f\u663e\u5f97\u66f4\u660e\u667a\u3002\u60b2\u89c2\u4e3b\u4e49\u5728\u8ba4\u77e5\u4e0a\u5177\u6709\u4e00\u79cd\u5438\u5f15\u529b\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u4eba\u4eec\u5bf9\u5b83\u7684\u5173\u6ce8\u8d85\u8fc7\u4e86\u5bf9\u4e50\u89c2\u4e3b\u4e49\u7684\uff0c\u800c\u540e\u8005\u5f80\u5f80\u88ab\u770b\u4f5c\u5ffd\u89c6\u98ce\u9669\u7684\u8868\u73b0\u3002<\/p>\n
\u3000\u3000\u5728\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u8ba8\u8bba\u4e4b\u524d\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5148\u6765\u5b9a\u4e49\u4e00\u4e0b\u4ec0\u4e48\u662f\u4e50\u89c2\u4e3b\u4e49\u3002<\/p>\n
\u3000\u3000\u771f\u6b63\u7684\u4e50\u89c2\u4e3b\u4e49\u8005\u5e76\u975e\u76f8\u4fe1\u4e00\u5207\u90fd\u4f1a\u53d8\u5f97\u5f88\u597d\u2014\u2014\u90a3\u5c31\u53d8\u6210\u76f2\u76ee\u81ea\u4fe1\u4e86\u3002\u4e50\u89c2\u4e3b\u4e49\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u4fe1\u5ff5\uff0c\u76f8\u4fe1\u5c31\u7b97\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4e2d\u5145\u6ee1\u574e\u5777\uff0c\u968f\u7740\u65f6\u95f4\u8fc7\u53bb\uff0c\u4f60\u5fc3\u76ee\u4e2d\u597d\u7ed3\u679c\u51fa\u73b0\u7684\u6982\u7387\u4e5f\u6bd4\u574f\u7ed3\u679c\u51fa\u73b0\u7684\u6982\u7387\u5927\u3002\u4e50\u89c2\u4e3b\u4e49\u7684\u57fa\u7840\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u7b80\u5355\u7684\u9053\u7406\uff1a\u5927\u591a\u6570\u4eba\u65e9\u4e0a\u9192\u6765\u540e\u7684\u7b2c\u4e00\u4e2a\u5ff5\u5934\u90fd\u662f\u8981\u66f4\u597d\u3001\u66f4\u6709\u6548\u5730\u505a\u4e8b\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u8981\u641e\u7834\u574f\u3002\u8fd9\u4e2a\u9053\u7406\u5e76\u4e0d\u590d\u6742\uff0c\u4e5f\u4e0d\u662f\u4e07\u65e0\u4e00\u5931\u7684\uff0c\u53ea\u4e0d\u8fc7\u5728\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u65f6\u5019\uff0c\u5bf9\u5927\u591a\u6570\u4eba\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u8fd9\u90fd\u662f\u6700\u53ef\u80fd\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u3002\u5df2\u6545\u7684\u7edf\u8ba1\u5b66\u5bb6\u6c49\u65af\u00b7\u7f57\u65af\u6797\uff08Hans Rosling\uff09\u7528\u53e6\u4e00\u79cd\u8bf4\u6cd5\u9610\u8ff0\u4e86\u540c\u4e00\u4e2a\u9053\u7406\uff1a\u201c\u6211\u4e0d\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e50\u89c2\u4e3b\u4e49\u8005\u3002\u6211\u53ea\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u975e\u5e38\u4e25\u8083\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u4e3b\u4e49\u8005\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n
\u3000\u3000\u73b0\u5728\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u6765\u8bf4\u8bf4\u4e50\u89c2\u4e3b\u4e49\u7684\u5b6a\u751f\u5144\u5f1f \u2014\u2014 \u60b2\u89c2\u4e3b\u4e49\u3002\u4eba\u4eec\u603b\u662f\u66f4\u613f\u610f\u76f8\u4fe1\u5b83\u3002<\/p>\n
\n\u3000\u3000\u65f6\u95f4\u662f 2008 \u5e74 12 \u6708 29 \u65e5\u3002<\/p>\n
\u3000\u3000\u73b0\u4ee3\u53f2\u4e0a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6700\u7cdf\u7cd5\u7684\u4e00\u5e74\u5373\u5c06\u7ed3\u675f\u3002\u6b64\u65f6\uff0c\u5168\u4e16\u754c\u7684\u80a1\u5e02\u90fd\u5df2\u7ecf\u5d29\u76d8\u3002\u5168\u4e16\u754c\u7684\u91d1\u878d\u7cfb\u7edf\u6bcf\u5929\u90fd\u5728\u751f\u6b7b\u8fb9\u7f18\u5f98\u5f8a\u3002\u5931\u4e1a\u7387\u5728\u98d9\u5347\u3002<\/p>\n
\u3000\u3000\u5f53\u60c5\u51b5\u770b\u8d77\u6765\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u53d8\u5f97\u66f4\u7cdf\u65f6\uff0c\u300a\u534e\u5c14\u8857\u65e5\u62a5\u300b\u53d1\u8868\u7684\u4e00\u7bc7\u6545\u4e8b\u58f0\u79f0\uff0c\u771f\u6b63\u7cdf\u7cd5\u7684\u9636\u6bb5\u8fd8\u6ca1\u6709\u5230\u6765\u3002\u8be5\u62a5\u5728\u5934\u7248\u520a\u767b\u4e86\u4e00\u7bc7\u6587\u7ae0\uff0c\u63f4\u5f15\u4e86\u4e00\u540d\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u6559\u6388\u4f0a\u6208\u5c14\u00b7\u5e15\u7eb3\u6797\uff08Igor Panarin\uff09\u5bf9\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5f62\u52bf\u7684\u770b\u6cd5\u2014\u2014\u90a3\u7b80\u76f4\u53ef\u4ee5\u5ab2\u7f8e\u79d1\u5e7b\u5c0f\u8bf4\u4f5c\u5bb6\u7684\u60f3\u8c61\u4e86\u3002<\/p>\n
\u3000\u3000\u300a\u534e\u5c14\u8857\u65e5\u62a5\u300b\u5199\u9053\uff1a<\/p>\n
\n\uff08\u5e15\u7eb3\u6797\uff09\u63d0\u51fa\uff0c\u5927\u7ea6\u5728 2010 \u5e74 6 \u6708\u5e95\u6216 7 \u6708\u521d\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u5c06\u5206\u88c2\u4e3a 6 \u4e2a\u90e8\u5206\u2014\u2014\u963f\u62c9\u65af\u52a0\u5c06\u91cd\u65b0\u88ab\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u63a7\u5236\uff08\u2026\u2026\uff09\u52a0\u5229\u798f\u5c3c\u4e9a\u5dde\u5c06\u6210\u4e3a\u4ed6\u53e3\u4e2d\u7684\u201c\u52a0\u5229\u798f\u5c3c\u4e9a\u5171\u548c\u56fd\u201d\u7684\u4e2d\u5fc3\u3002\u5f97\u514b\u8428\u65af\u5dde\u5c06\u6210\u4e3a\u201c\u5f97\u514b\u8428\u65af\u5171\u548c\u56fd\u201d\u7684\u4e2d\u5fc3\u3002\u8fd9\u4e2a\u5171\u548c\u56fd\u7531\u51e0\u4e2a\u5dde\u7ec4\u6210\uff0c\u90fd\u5c06\u5e76\u5165\u58a8\u897f\u54e5\u6216\u53d7\u5230\u58a8\u897f\u54e5\u7684\u5e87\u62a4\u3002\u534e\u76db\u987f\u7279\u533a\u548c\u7ebd\u7ea6\u5c06\u6210\u4e3a\u201c\u5927\u897f\u6d0b\u7f8e\u56fd\u201d\u7684\u4e00\u90e8\u5206\uff0c\u5e76\u52a0\u5165\u6b27\u76df\u3002\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u5c06\u5360\u9886\u7f8e\u56fd\u5317\u90e8\u7684\u4e00\u4e9b\u5dde\uff0c\u800c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5730\u533a\u88ab\u5e15\u7eb3\u6797\u79f0\u4e3a\u201c\u5317\u7f8e\u4e2d\u90e8\u5171\u548c\u56fd\u201d\u3002\u590f\u5a01\u5937\u5728\u4ed6\u770b\u6765\u4f1a\u6210\u4e3a\u65e5\u672c\u7684\u4fdd\u62a4\u56fd\uff0c\u800c\u963f\u62c9\u65af\u52a0\u5c06\u56de\u5230\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u7684\u6000\u62b1\u3002<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n
\u3000\u3000\u8fd9\u53ef\u4e0d\u662f\u53d1\u8868\u5728\u79c1\u4eba\u535a\u5ba2\u4e0a\u7684\u80e1\u8a00\u4e71\u8bed\u6216\u67d0\u4e9b\u5c0f\u4f17\u7ec4\u7ec7\u63a8\u9001\u7684\u9634\u8c0b\u8bba\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u520a\u767b\u5728\u5168\u7403\u6700\u8d1f\u76db\u540d\u7684\u8d22\u7ecf\u62a5\u7eb8\u5934\u7248\u7684\u6587\u7ae0\u3002<\/p>\n
\u3000\u3000\u5bf9\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6301\u60b2\u89c2\u6001\u5ea6\u662f\u6ca1\u95ee\u9898\u7684\uff0c\u54ea\u6015\u89c9\u5f97\u4e16\u754c\u672b\u65e5\u8981\u6765\u4e86\u90fd\u53ef\u4ee5\u3002\u5386\u53f2\u4e0a\u8bb8\u591a\u56fd\u5bb6\u906d\u9047\u7684\u4e0d\u4ec5\u6709\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8870\u9000\uff0c\u8fd8\u6709\u56fd\u5bb6\u89e3\u4f53\u3002<\/p>\n
\u3000\u3000\u5e15\u7eb3\u6797\u63d0\u51fa\u7684\u8fd9\u7c7b\u89c2\u70b9\u7684\u6709\u8da3\u4e4b\u5904\u5728\u4e8e\uff0c\u5b83\u7684\u53e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u6781\u7aef\u2014\u2014\u8fc7\u5206\u4e50\u89c2\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u2014\u2014\u5374\u5f88\u5c11\u50cf\u60b2\u89c2\u9884\u8a00\u90a3\u6837\u88ab\u8ba4\u771f\u770b\u5f85\u3002<\/p>\n
\u3000\u3000\u4ee5 20 \u4e16\u7eaa 40 \u5e74\u4ee3\u672b\u7684\u65e5\u672c\u4e3a\u4f8b\u3002\u65e5\u672c\u5728\u7b2c\u4e8c\u6b21\u4e16\u754c\u5927\u6218\u4e2d\u7684\u6218\u8d25\u4f7f\u5176\u5728\u7ecf\u6d4e\u3001\u5de5\u4e1a\u3001\u6587\u5316\u548c\u793e\u4f1a\u7b49\u65b9\u9762\u90fd\u906d\u53d7\u4e86\u91cd\u521b\u3002\u800c 1946 \u5e74\u7684\u4e25\u51ac\u5f15\u53d1\u7684\u9965\u8352\u5219\u8ba9\u6bcf\u4e2a\u65e5\u672c\u4eba\u6bcf\u5929\u6444\u5165\u7684\u70ed\u91cf\u4e0d\u8db3 800 \u5927\u5361\u3002<\/p>\n
\u3000\u3000\u60f3\u8c61\u4e00\u4e0b\uff0c\u5728\u8fd9\u79cd\u65f6\u5019\uff0c\u62a5\u7eb8\u4e0a\u520a\u767b\u4e86\u65e5\u672c\u5b66\u8005\u64b0\u5199\u7684\u4e00\u7bc7\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u6587\u7ae0\uff1a<\/p>\n
\n\u8bf7\u5927\u5bb6\u632f\u4f5c\u8d77\u6765\u5427\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u5c06\u5728\u6709\u751f\u4e4b\u5e74\u770b\u5230\u5982\u4e0b\u53d8\u5316\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u91cf\u548c\u6218\u4e89\u7ed3\u675f\u524d\u76f8\u6bd4\u589e\u957f\u4e86\u8fd1 14 \u500d\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u4eba\u5747\u5bff\u547d\u51e0\u4e4e\u4f1a\u7ffb\u4e00\u756a\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u80a1\u5e02\u5c06\u5e26\u6765\u5386\u53f2\u4e0a\u4efb\u4f55\u56fd\u5bb6\u90fd\u96be\u5f97\u4e00\u89c1\u7684\u56de\u62a5\u3002\u5728\u63a5\u4e0b\u6765\u8d85\u8fc7 40 \u5e74\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u91cc\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u5931\u4e1a\u7387\u90fd\u4e0d\u4f1a\u9ad8\u4e8e 6%\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u5c06\u5728\u7535\u5b50\u4ea7\u4e1a\u521b\u65b0\u548c\u4f01\u4e1a\u7ba1\u7406\u7cfb\u7edf\u9886\u57df\u6210\u4e3a\u4e16\u754c\u4e0a\u7684\u9886\u5bfc\u8005\u3002\u7528\u4e0d\u4e86\u591a\u4e45\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5c31\u4f1a\u53d8\u5f97\u5f88\u5bcc\u6709\uff0c\u5c06\u5728\u7f8e\u56fd\u62e5\u6709\u4e00\u4e9b\u6700\u6602\u8d35\u7684\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u3002\u800c\u4e14\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u4eba\u5c06\u6210\u4e3a\u4e0e\u6211\u4eec\u8054\u7cfb\u6700\u7d27\u5bc6\u7684\u76df\u53cb\uff0c\u5e76\u5c06\u52aa\u529b\u501f\u9274\u6211\u4eec\u5728\u7ecf\u6d4e\u65b9\u9762\u7684\u4e00\u4e9b\u8fdc\u89c1\u3002<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n
\u3000\u3000\u53d1\u8868\u8fd9\u7c7b\u8a00\u8bba\u7684\u4eba\u4f1a\u7acb\u5373\u906d\u5230\u5176\u4ed6\u4eba\u7684\u5632\u7b11\uff0c\u5e76\u4f1a\u88ab\u8981\u6c42\u53bb\u533b\u9662\u770b\u770b\u8111\u5b50\u3002<\/p>\n
\u3000\u3000\u8bf7\u8bb0\u4f4f\uff0c\u4e0a\u9762\u8fd9\u6bb5\u6587\u5b57\u63cf\u8ff0\u7684\u662f\u7b2c\u4e8c\u6b21\u4e16\u754c\u5927\u6218\u4e4b\u540e\u7684\u90a3\u4e00\u4ee3\u65e5\u672c\u4eba\u7684\u771f\u5b9e\u7ecf\u5386\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u548c\u5e15\u7eb3\u6797\u7684\u8bba\u8c03\u6070\u6070\u76f8\u53cd\u7684\u4e50\u89c2\u89c6\u89d2\u5728\u67d0\u79cd\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e0a\u8ba9\u4eba\u611f\u5230\u5f88\u8352\u8bde\uff0c\u53ef\u60b2\u89c2\u8bba\u8c03\u5374\u8ba9\u4eba\u611f\u5230\u5b83\u662f\u5f88\u53ef\u80fd\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n
\u3000\u3000\u60b2\u89c2\u8bba\u8c03\u542c\u8d77\u6765\u4f3c\u4e4e\u6bd4\u4e50\u89c2\u8bba\u8c03\u66f4\u5bcc\u6709\u667a\u6167\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u4e5f\u66f4\u5177\u8bf4\u670d\u529b\u3002<\/p>\n
\u3000\u3000\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u544a\u8bc9\u4eba\u4eec\u4e00\u5207\u90fd\u4f1a\u53d8\u5f97\u5f88\u597d\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u4e0d\u4ee5\u4e3a\u7136\uff0c\u6216\u8005\u7528\u6000\u7591\u7684\u76ee\u5149\u770b\u7740\u4f60\u3002\u4f46\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u8bf4\u4ed6\u4eec\u6b63\u5904\u4e8e\u5371\u9669\u4e2d\uff0c\u4f60\u5c31\u4f1a\u83b7\u5f97\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u5168\u90e8\u6ce8\u610f\u529b\u3002<\/p>\n
\u3000\u3000\u5982\u679c\u4e00\u4e2a\u5411\u6765\u5934\u8111\u806a\u660e\u7684\u4eba\u544a\u8bc9\u6211\uff0c\u4ed6\u9009\u7684\u4e00\u53ea\u80a1\u7968\u7684\u4ef7\u683c\u660e\u5e74\u4f1a\u7ffb 10 \u500d\uff0c\u6211\u4f1a\u6beb\u4e0d\u72b9\u8c6b\u5730\u5c06\u5176\u5f53\u4f5c\u75f4\u4eba\u8bf4\u68a6\u3002<\/p>\n
\u3000\u3000\u4f46\u5982\u679c\u4e00\u4e2a\u603b\u662f\u7cca\u91cc\u7cca\u6d82\u7684\u4eba\u544a\u8bc9\u6211\uff0c\u6211\u6301\u6709\u7684\u4e00\u53ea\u80a1\u7968\u7684\u4ef7\u683c\u4f1a\u56e0\u4e3a\u8be5\u516c\u53f8\u88ab\u66dd\u5149\u505a\u5047\u8d26\u800c\u5927\u8dcc\uff0c\u6211\u4f1a\u653e\u4e0b\u624b\u5934\u5168\u90e8\u5de5\u4f5c\uff0c\u8ba4\u771f\u542c\u4ed6\u8bf4\u7684\u6bcf\u4e00\u4e2a\u5b57\u3002<\/p>\n
\u3000\u3000\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u53d1\u8868\u4e86\u6211\u4eec\u5c06\u9762\u4e34\u4e25\u91cd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8870\u9000\u7684\u8a00\u8bba\uff0c\u4f1a\u6709\u5a92\u4f53\u6253\u7535\u8bdd\u8054\u7cfb\u4f60\uff1b\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u8bf4\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u901f\u5c06\u4e00\u5982\u65e2\u5f80\uff0c\u6ca1\u6709\u4eba\u4f1a\u591a\u770b\u4f60\u4e00\u773c\u3002\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u8bf4\u6211\u4eec\u8ddd\u79bb\u4e0b\u4e00\u6b21\u5927\u8427\u6761\u4e0d\u8fdc\u4e86\uff0c\u4f1a\u6709\u7535\u89c6\u53f0\u8bf7\u4f60\u53bb\u505a\u8282\u76ee\uff1b\u4f46\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u8bf4\u7ecf\u6d4e\u524d\u9014\u4e00\u7247\u5149\u660e\uff0c\u6216\u8005\u5e02\u573a\u8fd8\u6709\u7ee7\u7eed\u53d1\u5c55\u7684\u7a7a\u95f4\uff0c\u6216\u8005\u4e00\u5bb6\u516c\u53f8\u6709\u5de8\u5927\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\u6f5c\u529b\uff0c\u8bc4\u8bba\u4eba\u58eb\u548c\u65c1\u89c2\u8005\u7684\u666e\u904d\u53cd\u5e94\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u8ba4\u4e3a\u4f60\u4e0d\u662f\u6253\u7b97\u8425\u9500\u4ec0\u4e48\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u5bf9\u98ce\u9669\u65e0\u77e5\u5230\u4e86\u53ef\u7b11\u7684\u5730\u6b65\u3002<\/p>\n
\u3000\u3000\u591a\u5e74\u6765\uff0c\u8d22\u7ecf\u5a92\u4f53\u6df1\u8c19\u8fd9\u4e00\u89c4\u5f8b\u3002\u5982\u4eca\u7684\u5a92\u4f53\u4e0a\u5145\u6ee1\u4e86\u5bf9\u672a\u6765\u7684\u60b2\u89c2\u8bba\u8c03\uff0c\u4f46\u8fd9\u4e9b\u8bba\u8c03\u51fa\u73b0\u7684\u80cc\u666f\u662f\uff0c\u5728\u8fc7\u53bb\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e16\u7eaa\u4e2d\uff0c\u80a1\u5e02\u5e02\u503c\u589e\u957f\u4e86 1.7 \u4e07\u500d\uff08\u5305\u62ec\u80a1\u606f\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n
\u3000\u3000\u5728\u91d1\u878d\u4e4b\u5916\u7684\u9886\u57df\uff0c\u60c5\u51b5\u540c\u6837\u5982\u6b64\u3002\u9a6c\u7279\u00b7\u91cc\u5fb7\u5229\uff08Matt Ridley\uff09\u5728\u300a\u7406\u6027\u4e50\u89c2\u6d3e\u300b\uff08The<\/em> Rational<\/em> Optimist<\/em>\uff09\u4e00\u4e66\u4e2d\u5199\u9053\uff1a<\/p>\n
\n\u6301\u7eed\u6572\u54cd\u7684\u60b2\u89c2\u4e3b\u4e49\u9f13\u70b9\u4f1a\u76d6\u8fc7\u4efb\u4f55\u6709\u5173\u80dc\u5229\u7684\u8d5e\u6b4c\u2026\u2026\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u8bf4\u4e16\u754c\u4e00\u76f4\u5728\u53d8\u597d\uff0c\u4eba\u4eec\u4f1a\u89c9\u5f97\u4f60\u5f88\u5929\u771f\uff0c\u5bf9\u5916\u90e8\u4e16\u754c\u7684\u53d8\u5316\u6d51\u7136\u4e0d\u77e5\u3002\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u8bf4\u4e16\u754c\u5c06\u51fa\u73b0\u5411\u597d\u7684\u8f6c\u53d8\uff0c\u4eba\u4eec\u4f1a\u89c9\u5f97\u4f60\u7684\u75af\u72c2\u4ee4\u4eba\u53d1\u6307\u3002\u76f8\u53cd\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u8bf4\u4e00\u573a\u707e\u96be\u5373\u5c06\u6765\u4e34\uff0c\u4f60\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u88ab\u6388\u4e88\u9ea6\u514b\u963f\u745f\u5929\u624d\u5956\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u8bfa\u8d1d\u5c14\u548c\u5e73\u5956\u3002\u5728\u6211\u6210\u5e74\u4ee5\u540e\u2026\u2026\u4eba\u4eec\u5d07\u5c1a\u60b2\u89c2\u4e3b\u4e49\u7684\u539f\u56e0\u53d1\u751f\u4e86\u53d8\u5316\uff0c\u4f46\u60b2\u89c2\u4e3b\u4e49\u60c5\u7eea\u59cb\u7ec8\u5b58\u5728\u3002<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n
\u3000\u3000\u201c\u6211\u91c7\u8bbf\u8fc7\u7684\u6bcf\u4e00\u7c7b\u4eba\u7fa4\u90fd\u89c9\u5f97\u4e16\u754c\u6bd4\u5b9e\u9645\u60c5\u51b5\u66f4\u53ef\u6015\uff0c\u66f4\u6b8b\u9177\uff0c\u66f4\u4ee4\u4eba\u7edd\u671b\u2014\u2014\u7b80\u8a00\u4e4b\uff0c\u66f4\u5927\u8d77\u5927\u843d\u3001\u53d8\u5e7b\u83ab\u6d4b\u3002\u201d\u6c49\u65af\u00b7\u7f57\u65af\u6797\u5728\u300a\u4e8b\u5b9e\u300b\uff08Factfulness<\/em>\uff09\u4e00\u4e66\u4e2d\u8fd9\u6837\u5199\u9053\u3002<\/p>\n
\u3000\u3000\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u80fd\u610f\u8bc6\u5230\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a\u4eba\u4e00\u751f\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u91cc\uff0c\u4eba\u7c7b\u793e\u4f1a\u53ef\u4ee5\u5728\u7ecf\u6d4e\u53d1\u5c55\u3001\u533b\u5b66\u7a81\u7834\u3001\u80a1\u5e02\u6536\u76ca\u548c\u793e\u4f1a\u5e73\u7b49\u7b49\u5404\u4e2a\u9886\u57df\u53d6\u5f97\u591a\u4e48\u5de8\u5927\u7684\u8fdb\u6b65\uff0c\u4f60\u5c31\u4f1a\u53d1\u73b0\uff0c\u4e50\u89c2\u4e3b\u4e49\u672c\u8be5\u6bd4\u60b2\u89c2\u4e3b\u4e49\u5438\u5f15\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u5173\u6ce8\u3002\u7136\u800c\u73b0\u5b9e\u5e76\u975e\u5982\u6b64\u3002<\/p>\n
\u3000\u3000\u4eba\u4eec\u5f88\u65e9\u5c31\u8ba4\u8bc6\u5230\u4e86\u60b2\u89c2\u4e3b\u4e49\u6563\u53d1\u7684\u7406\u6027\u5438\u5f15\u529b\u3002\u82f1\u56fd\u54f2\u5b66\u5bb6\u7ea6\u7ff0\u00b7\u65af\u56fe\u5c14\u7279\u00b7\u5bc6\u5c14\uff08John Stuart Mill\uff09\u65e9\u5728 19 \u4e16\u7eaa 40 \u5e74\u4ee3\u4fbf\u5199\u9053\uff1a\u201c\u6211\u53d1\u73b0\uff0c\u4e00\u4e2a\u5728\u4f17\u4eba\u5fc3\u6000\u7edd\u671b\u65f6\u6ee1\u6000\u5e0c\u671b\u7684\u4eba\u4e0d\u4f1a\u88ab\u770b\u91cd\uff0c\u4f46\u4e00\u4e2a\u5728\u4f17\u4eba\u90fd\u5fc3\u6000\u5e0c\u671b\u65f6\u6ee1\u6000\u7edd\u671b\u7684\u4eba\u5374\u4f1a\u88ab\u89c6\u4e3a\u5723\u4eba\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n
\u3000\u3000\u95ee\u9898\u662f\uff0c\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u4e8b\u60c5\u662f\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\uff1f\u8fd9\u79cd\u73b0\u8c61\u53c8\u662f\u5982\u4f55\u5f71\u54cd\u6211\u4eec\u5bf9\u91d1\u94b1\u7684\u770b\u6cd5\u7684\uff1f<\/p>\n
\n\u3000\u3000\u8ba9\u6211\u4eec\u56de\u987e\u4e00\u4e0b\u524d\u9762\u8bb2\u8fc7\u7684\u9053\u7406\uff1a\u6ca1\u6709\u4eba\u771f\u7684\u5bf9\u94b1\u5931\u53bb\u7406\u667a\u3002<\/p>\n
\u3000\u3000\u5728\u6d89\u53ca\u91d1\u94b1\u7684\u9886\u57df\uff0c\u60b2\u89c2\u4e3b\u4e49\u4e4b\u6240\u4ee5\u5177\u6709\u5438\u5f15\u529b\uff0c\u7684\u786e\u662f\u6709\u5145\u5206\u7406\u7531\u7684\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u53ea\u6709\u4e86\u89e3\u4e86\u8fd9\u4e9b\u7406\u7531\uff0c\u624d\u4e0d\u4f1a\u88ab\u60b2\u89c2\u4e3b\u4e49\u7275\u7740\u9f3b\u5b50\u8d70\u3002<\/p>\n
\u3000\u3000\u5176\u4e2d\u4e00\u4e2a\u539f\u56e0\u662f\u51fa\u81ea\u672c\u80fd\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u65e0\u6cd5\u907f\u514d\u7684\u3002\u4e39\u5c3c\u5c14\u00b7\u5361\u5c3c\u66fc\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u4eba\u7c7b\u5bf9\u5931\u53bb\u7684\u8fc7\u5ea6\u538c\u6076\u662f\u5728\u6f14\u5316\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4e2d\u5f62\u6210\u7684\u4e00\u79cd\u4fdd\u62a4\u673a\u5236\u3002\u4ed6\u5199\u9053\uff1a<\/p>\n
\u3000\u3000\u5728\u8fdb\u884c\u76f4\u63a5\u6bd4\u8f83\u6216\u6743\u8861\u65f6\uff0c\u5931\u53bb\u5e26\u7ed9\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u7cbe\u795e\u5f71\u54cd\u6bd4\u5f97\u5230\u66f4\u5927\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u79ef\u6781\u548c\u6d88\u6781\u7684\u671f\u671b\u6216\u7ecf\u5386\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u529b\u91cf\u4e0d\u5bf9\u7b49\u73b0\u8c61\u6709\u7740\u6f14\u5316\u65b9\u9762\u7684\u539f\u56e0\u3002\u76f8\u6bd4\u673a\u9047\uff0c\u5bf9\u5a01\u80c1\u53cd\u5e94\u66f4\u5feb\u7684\u751f\u7269\u6210\u529f\u751f\u5b58\u548c\u7e41\u6b96\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u624d\u66f4\u5927\u3002<\/p>\n
\u3000\u3000\u4e0d\u8fc7\uff0c\u5728\u91d1\u878d\u9886\u57df\uff0c\u5bfc\u81f4\u60b2\u89c2\u4e3b\u4e49\u6bd4\u4e50\u89c2\u4e3b\u4e49\u66f4\u5bb9\u6613\u51fa\u73b0\u3001\u66f4\u666e\u904d\u4e5f\u66f4\u5177\u6709\u8bf4\u670d\u529b\u7684\uff0c\u8fd8\u6709\u5176\u4ed6\u4e00\u4e9b\u539f\u56e0\u3002<\/p>\n
\u3000\u3000\u200d<\/p>\n
\u3000\u3000\u7b2c\u4e00\u4e2a\u539f\u56e0\u662f\uff0c\u91d1\u94b1\u5728\u751f\u6d3b\u4e2d\u65e0\u5904\u4e0d\u5728\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u91d1\u878d\u9886\u57df\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u6d88\u6781\u4e8b\u4ef6\u5f80\u5f80\u4f1a\u5f71\u54cd\u5230\u6bcf\u4e00\u4e2a\u4eba\uff0c\u5438\u5f15\u6bcf\u4e00\u4e2a\u4eba\u7684\u6ce8\u610f\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n
\u3000\u3000\u200d<\/p>\n
\u3000\u3000\u5f88\u591a\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u6bd4\u5982\u5929\u6c14\uff0c\u5c31\u4e0d\u5c5e\u4e8e\u8fd9\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5\u3002\u88ad\u51fb\u4f5b\u7f57\u91cc\u8fbe\u5dde\u7684\u98d3\u98ce\u4e0d\u4f1a\u5bf9 92% \u7684\u7f8e\u56fd\u4eba\u9020\u6210\u76f4\u63a5\u5371\u5bb3\uff0c\u4f46\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8870\u9000\u5219\u53ef\u80fd\u5f71\u54cd\u6211\u4eec\u6bcf\u4e00\u4e2a\u4eba\u2014\u2014\u5305\u62ec\u4f60\u3002\u6240\u4ee5\u6211\u4eec\u81ea\u7136\u4f1a\u683c\u5916\u5173\u6ce8\u540e\u8005\u3002<\/p>\n
\u3000\u3000\u67d0\u4e9b\u5177\u4f53\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u6bd4\u5982\u80a1\u5e02\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u8fd9\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5\u7684\u5178\u578b\u4f8b\u5b50\u3002\u5728\u7f8e\u56fd\uff0c\u4e00\u534a\u4ee5\u4e0a\u7684\u5bb6\u5ead\u76f4\u63a5\u6301\u6709\u80a1\u7968\uff0c\u4f46\u5373\u4f7f\u662f\u90a3\u4e9b\u4e0d\u76f4\u63a5\u6301\u6709\u80a1\u7968\u7684\u5bb6\u5ead\uff0c\u5728\u80a1\u5e02\u7684\u6ce2\u52a8\u7ecf\u8fc7\u5a92\u4f53\u7684\u5927\u8086\u6e32\u67d3\u4ee5\u540e\uff0c\u4e5f\u4f1a\u5c06\u9053\u743c\u65af\u5de5\u4e1a\u5e73\u5747\u6307\u6570\u4f5c\u4e3a\u5fc3\u4e2d\u7b2c\u4e00\u4f4d\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6674\u96e8\u8868\u3002<\/p>\n
\u3000\u3000\u5982\u679c\u80a1\u5e02\u4e0a\u6da8 1%\uff0c\u4e5f\u8bb8\u53ea\u6709\u665a\u95f4\u65b0\u95fb\u4f1a\u7b80\u5355\u5730\u63d0\u5230\u4e00\u53e5\u3002\u4f46\u662f\u5982\u679c\u80a1\u5e02\u4e0b\u8dcc\u4e86 1%\uff0c\u5c31\u4f1a\u6709\u901a\u5e38\u4e3a\u7ea2\u8272\u7684\u52a0\u7c97\u5927\u5199\u6807\u9898\u5927\u8086\u62a5\u9053\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u4e0d\u5bf9\u7b49\u6027\u662f\u5f88\u96be\u907f\u514d\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n
\u3000\u3000\u867d\u7136\u5f88\u5c11\u6709\u4eba\u4f1a\u53bb\u95ee\u6216\u8bd5\u7740\u53bb\u89e3\u91ca\u80a1\u5e02\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u4f1a\u4e0a\u6da8\u2014\u2014\u4eba\u4eec\u603b\u4f1a\u89c9\u5f97\u4e0a\u6da8\u662f\u7406\u6240\u5f53\u7136\u7684\u2014\u2014\u4f46\u5f53\u80a1\u5e02\u4e0b\u884c\u65f6\uff0c\u4eba\u4eec\u5374\u603b\u4f1a\u60f3\u5c3d\u529e\u6cd5\u53bb\u89e3\u91ca\u5176\u4e0b\u884c\u7684\u539f\u56e0\u3002<\/p>\n
\u3000\u3000\u662f\u56e0\u4e3a\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u4e0d\u770b\u597d\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f\u5417\uff1f<\/p>\n
\u3000\u3000\u662f\u56e0\u4e3a\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u53c8\u628a\u4e8b\u60c5\u641e\u7838\u4e86\u5417\uff1f<\/p>\n
\u3000\u3000\u662f\u56e0\u4e3a\u653f\u5ba2\u4eec\u53c8\u505a\u4e86\u9519\u8bef\u51b3\u7b56\u5417\uff1f<\/p>\n
\u3000\u3000\u662f\u4e0d\u662f\u8fd8\u6709\u66f4\u7cdf\u7cd5\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u5728\u540e\u9762\uff1f<\/p>\n
\u3000\u3000\u4e3a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4e0b\u884c\u627e\u539f\u56e0\uff0c\u4f1a\u8ba9\u5b83\u66f4\u5bb9\u6613\u6210\u4e3a\u4eba\u4eec\u8ba8\u8bba\u548c\u62c5\u5fe7\u7684\u5bf9\u8c61\uff0c\u4e5f\u4f1a\u8ba9\u4eba\u4eec\u66f4\u5bb9\u6613\u5c55\u671b\u672a\u6765\u8d70\u5411\uff0c\u7f16\u7ec7\u51fa\u60b2\u89c2\u7684\u6545\u4e8b\u2014\u2014\u8fd9\u79cd\u6545\u4e8b\u7684\u5185\u5bb9\u5e38\u5e38\u5927\u540c\u5c0f\u5f02\u3002<\/p>\n
\u3000\u3000\u5373\u4f7f\u4f60\u5e76\u4e0d\u6301\u6709\u80a1\u7968\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u8bba\u8c03\u4e5f\u4f1a\u5438\u5f15\u4f60\u7684\u6ce8\u610f\u30021929 \u5e74\uff0c\u5728\u5f15\u53d1\u5927\u8427\u6761\u7684\u80a1\u5e02\u5927\u5d29\u76d8\u53d1\u751f\u524d\u5915\uff0c\u53ea\u6709 2.5% \u7684\u7f8e\u56fd\u4eba\u6301\u6709\u80a1\u7968\uff0c\u4f46\u7edd\u5927\u591a\u6570\u7f8e\u56fd\u4eba\u2014\u2014\u751a\u81f3\u53ef\u4ee5\u8bf4\u5168\u4e16\u754c\u2014\u2014\u90fd\u5728\u60ca\u6115\u5730\u65c1\u89c2\u7740\u8fd9\u6b21\u5e02\u573a\u5d29\u76d8\u7684\u8fc7\u7a0b\uff0c\u5fc3\u60f3\u7740\u8fd9\u5bf9\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u751f\u6d3b\u800c\u8a00\u610f\u5473\u7740\u4ec0\u4e48\u3002\u65e0\u8bba\u662f\u5f8b\u5e08\u3001\u519c\u6c11\u8fd8\u662f\u6c7d\u8f66\u4fee\u7406\u5de5\uff0c\u6bcf\u4e2a\u4eba\u90fd\u5728\u601d\u8003\u3002<\/p>\n
\u3000\u3000\u5386\u53f2\u5b66\u5bb6\u57c3\u91cc\u514b\u00b7\u7f57\u5a01\uff08Eric Rauchway\uff09\u5199\u9053\uff1a<\/p>\n
\n\u8fd9\u6b21\u5e02\u573a\u4e0b\u8dcc\u53ea\u5bf9\u6781\u5c0f\u4e00\u90e8\u5206\u7f8e\u56fd\u4eba\u9020\u6210\u4e86\u76f4\u63a5\u4f24\u5bb3\uff0c\u4f46\u56e0\u4e3a\u5176\u4ed6\u4eba\u4e5f\u90fd\u5bc6\u5207\u5173\u6ce8\u7740\u5e02\u573a\u5e76\u5c06\u5176\u770b\u4f5c\u81ea\u5df1\u4e2a\u4eba\u547d\u8fd0\u7684\u53c2\u7167\u7269\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u4e5f\u5f88\u5feb\u505c\u6b62\u4e86\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6d3b\u52a8\u3002\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u7ea6\u745f\u592b\u00b7\u718a\u5f7c\u7279\uff08Joseph Schumpeter\uff09\u540e\u6765\u5199\u9053\uff1a\u201c\u4eba\u4eec\u611f\u5230\u811a\u4e0b\u7684\u5730\u9762\u6b63\u5728\u5d29\u584c\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n
\u3000\u3000\u65e0\u8bba\u4f60\u662f\u5426\u611f\u5174\u8da3\uff0c\u6709\u4e24\u4e2a\u8bdd\u9898\u90fd\u4f1a\u5f71\u54cd\u4f60\u7684\u751f\u6d3b\uff1a\u91d1\u94b1\u4e0e\u5065\u5eb7\u3002\u5065\u5eb7\u95ee\u9898\u5f80\u5f80\u5c5e\u4e8e\u4e2a\u4eba\uff0c\u800c\u91d1\u94b1\u95ee\u9898\u5219\u66f4\u5177\u6709\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u3002\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a\u5bc6\u5207\u4e92\u8054\u7684\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e2d\uff0c\u4e00\u4e2a\u4eba\u7684\u51b3\u5b9a\u5f80\u5f80\u4f1a\u5f71\u54cd\u5230\u5176\u4ed6\u6240\u6709\u4eba\u3002\u4e8e\u662f\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u4e0d\u96be\u7406\u89e3\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u91d1\u878d\u98ce\u9669\u83b7\u5f97\u7684\u5173\u6ce8\u5ea6\u548c\u8ba8\u8bba\u5ea6\u662f\u5176\u4ed6\u8bdd\u9898\u96be\u671b\u9879\u80cc\u7684\u4e86\u3002<\/p>\n
\u3000\u3000\u200d<\/p>\n
\u3000\u3000\u7b2c\u4e8c\u4e2a\u539f\u56e0\u662f\uff0c\u60b2\u89c2\u4e3b\u4e49\u8005\u5728\u63a8\u6d4b\u672a\u6765\u8d8b\u52bf\u65f6\u7ecf\u5e38\u6ca1\u6709\u5c06\u5e02\u573a\u4f1a\u5982\u4f55\u9002\u5e94\u5c40\u52bf\u7eb3\u5165\u8003\u8651\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n
\u3000\u3000\u200d<\/p>\n
\u3000\u30002008 \u5e74\uff0c\u73af\u4fdd\u4e3b\u4e49\u8005\u83b1\u65af\u7279\u00b7\u5e03\u6717\uff08Lester Brown\uff09\u8fd9\u6837\u5199\u9053\uff1a\u201c\u5230 2030 \u5e74\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u6bcf\u5929\u5c06\u9700\u8981 9,800 \u4e07\u6876\u77f3\u6cb9\u3002\u5f53\u524d\u4e16\u754c\u7684\u77f3\u6cb9\u65e5\u4ea7\u91cf\u4e3a 8,500 \u4e07\u6876\uff0c\u5e76\u5f88\u53ef\u80fd\u6c38\u8fdc\u90fd\u4e0d\u4f1a\u8d85\u8fc7\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6570\u5b57\u3002\u5168\u4e16\u754c\u7684\u77f3\u6cb9\u50a8\u5907\u53ea\u80fd\u63d0\u4f9b\u8fd9\u4e48\u591a\u4e86\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n
\u3000\u3000\u4ed6\u8bf4\u5f97\u6ca1\u9519\u3002\u7167\u8fd9\u79cd\u8d8b\u52bf\u4e0b\u53bb\uff0c\u4e16\u754c\u4e0a\u7684\u77f3\u6cb9\u7ec8\u5c06\u8017\u5c3d\u3002<\/p>\n
\u3000\u3000\u4f46\u5e02\u573a\u53e6\u6709\u4e00\u5957\u8fd0\u4f5c\u65b9\u5f0f\u3002<\/p>\n
\u3000\u3000\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u4e2d\u6709\u4e00\u6761\u94c1\u5f8b\uff1a\u6781\u597d\u548c\u6781\u7cdf\u7684\u73af\u5883\u90fd\u5f88\u96be\u957f\u671f\u7ef4\u6301\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u4f9b\u9700\u4f1a\u4ee5\u5f88\u96be\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\u5bf9\u73af\u5883\u8fdb\u884c\u9002\u5e94\u3002<\/p>\n
\u3000\u3000\u6765\u770b\u770b\u5728\u5e03\u6717\u505a\u51fa\u9884\u6d4b\u4e4b\u540e\u77f3\u6cb9\u4ea7\u4e1a\u7acb\u523b\u53d1\u751f\u4e86\u4ec0\u4e48\u53d8\u5316\u3002<\/p>\n
\u3000\u30002008 \u5e74\uff0c\u968f\u7740\u5168\u7403\u77f3\u6cb9\u9700\u6c42\u7684\u589e\u957f\uff08\u5176\u4e2d\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u6765\u81ea\u4e2d\u56fd\uff09\uff0c\u77f3\u6cb9\u4ea7\u91cf\u63a5\u8fd1\u4e86\u4ea7\u80fd\u4e0a\u9650\uff0c\u4e8e\u662f\u77f3\u6cb9\u4ef7\u683c\u98d9\u5347\u3002\u4e00\u6876\u6cb9\u7684\u4ef7\u683c\u4ece 2001 \u5e74\u7684 20 \u7f8e\u5143\u6da8\u5230\u4e86 2008 \u5e74\u7684 138 \u7f8e\u5143\u3002<\/p>\n
\u3000\u3000\u65b0\u7684\u4ef7\u683c\u610f\u5473\u7740\u5f00\u91c7\u77f3\u6cb9\u5c31\u50cf\u6dd8\u91d1\u4e00\u6837\u5229\u6da6\u4e30\u539a\u3002\u8fd9\u5bf9\u77f3\u6cb9\u751f\u4ea7\u5546\u7684\u52a8\u529b\u9020\u6210\u4e86\u5de8\u5927\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u5f00\u91c7\u96be\u5ea6\u9ad8\u7684\u90a3\u90e8\u5206\u77f3\u6cb9\u66fe\u7ecf\u5f88\u96be\u76c8\u5229\u2014\u201420 \u7f8e\u5143\u4e00\u6876\u7684\u4ef7\u683c\u8fde\u94bb\u63a2\u6210\u672c\u90fd\u65e0\u6cd5\u8986\u76d6\u2014\u2014\u73b0\u5728\u5374\u6210\u4e86\u6447\u94b1\u6811\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u53ef\u4ee5\u4e00\u6876\u5356 138 \u7f8e\u5143\u4e86\u3002<\/p>\n
\u3000\u3000\u8fd9\u79cd\u53d8\u5316\u4f7f\u5f97\u6c34\u529b\u538b\u88c2\u548c\u6c34\u5e73\u94bb\u4e95\u7b49\u65b0\u6280\u672f\u5feb\u901f\u53d1\u5c55\u3002<\/p>\n
\u3000\u3000\u5730\u7403\u4e0a\u7684\u77f3\u6cb9\u50a8\u91cf\u5728\u4eba\u7c7b\u5386\u53f2\u4e0a\u7684\u6240\u6709\u65f6\u671f\u51e0\u4e4e\u90fd\u662f\u4e00\u81f4\u7684\uff0c\u800c\u6211\u4eec\u4e5f\u65e9\u5df2\u638c\u63e1\u4e86\u8bb8\u591a\u5927\u578b\u6cb9\u7530\u7684\u4f4d\u7f6e\u3002\u5728\u8fd9\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u53d1\u751f\u8fdb\u6b65\u7684\u662f\u80fd\u8ba9\u6211\u4eec\u4ee5\u66f4\u7ecf\u6d4e\u3001\u6548\u7387\u66f4\u9ad8\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\u5f00\u91c7\u77f3\u6cb9\u7684\u6280\u672f\u3002\u8457\u540d\u80fd\u6e90\u4e13\u5bb6\u4e39\u5c3c\u5c14\u00b7\u8036\u91d1\uff08Daniel Yergin\uff09\u5199\u9053\uff1a\u201c\u7f8e\u56fd\u77f3\u6cb9\u50a8\u91cf\u4e2d\u7684 86% \u4e0d\u662f\u53d1\u73b0\u6cb9\u7530\u65f6\u4f30\u7b97\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\uff0c\u800c\u662f\uff08\u968f\u7740\u6280\u672f\u8fdb\u6b65\u800c\uff09\u4fee\u6b63\u540e\u5f97\u51fa\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n
\u3000\u3000\u8fd9\u5c31\u662f 2008 \u5e74\u6c34\u529b\u538b\u88c2\u6280\u672f\u5174\u8d77\u540e\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u4e8b\u3002\u4ec5\u5728\u7f8e\u56fd\uff0c\u77f3\u6cb9\u4ea7\u91cf\u5c31\u4ece 2008 \u5e74\u7684\u5927\u7ea6\u4e00\u5929 500 \u4e07\u6876\u4e0a\u5347\u5230\u4e86 2019 \u5e74\u7684\u4e00\u5929 1,300 \u4e07\u6876\u3002\u5982\u4eca\u7684\u4e16\u754c\u77f3\u6cb9\u4ea7\u91cf\u4e3a\u6bcf\u5929\u8d85\u8fc7 1 \u4ebf\u6876\u2014\u2014\u8d85\u51fa\u5e03\u6717\u9884\u8ba1\u7684\u6700\u9ad8\u503c 20%\u3002<\/p>\n
\u3000\u3000\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a\u60b2\u89c2\u4e3b\u4e49\u8005\u770b\u6765\uff0c2008 \u5e74\u77f3\u6cb9\u4ea7\u4e1a\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\u8d8b\u52bf\u81ea\u7136\u662f\u4e0d\u5bb9\u4e50\u89c2\u7684\u3002\u4f46\u5bf9\u4e00\u4e2a\u6e05\u695a\u9700\u6c42\u662f\u6240\u6709\u521b\u65b0\u4e0e\u53d1\u660e\u4e4b\u6bcd\u7684\u73b0\u5b9e\u4e3b\u4e49\u8005\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u60c5\u51b5\u5c31\u8fdc\u6ca1\u6709\u90a3\u4e48\u7cdf\u7cd5\u4e86\u3002<\/p>\n
\u3000\u3000\u6211\u4eec\u5f88\u5bb9\u6613\u505a\u51fa\u7cdf\u7cd5\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4f1a\u6301\u7eed\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u5f88\u6709\u8bf4\u670d\u529b\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u5b83\u4e0d\u9700\u8981\u6211\u4eec\u53bb\u60f3\u8c61\u4e16\u754c\u4f1a\u53d1\u751f\u600e\u6837\u7684\u6539\u53d8\u3002\u4f46\u662f\u9519\u8bef\u603b\u4f1a\u5f97\u5230\u7ea0\u6b63\uff0c\u4eba\u4eec\u4e5f\u4e00\u76f4\u5728\u9002\u5e94\u73af\u5883\u3002\u773c\u524d\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u6709\u591a\u7cdf\u7cd5\uff0c\u4eba\u4eec\u89e3\u51b3\u95ee\u9898\u7684\u52a8\u529b\u5c31\u6709\u591a\u5f3a\u2014\u2014\u8fd9\u662f\u7ecf\u6d4e\u53f2\u4e2d\u666e\u904d\u5b58\u5728\u7684\u4e00\u79cd\u73b0\u8c61\uff0c\u5374\u5f88\u5bb9\u6613\u88ab\u60b2\u89c2\u4e3b\u4e49\u8005\u5ffd\u89c6\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u4e00\u76f4\u662f\u7b80\u5355\u7c97\u66b4\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n
\u3000\u3000\u200d<\/p>\n
\u3000\u3000\u7b2c\u4e09\u4e2a\u539f\u56e0\u662f\uff0c\u8fdb\u6b65\u53d1\u751f\u5f97\u592a\u6162\uff0c\u8ba9\u4eba\u96be\u4ee5\u53d1\u89c9\uff0c\u4f46\u632b\u6298\u5374\u51fa\u73b0\u5f97\u592a\u5feb\uff0c\u8ba9\u4eba\u96be\u4ee5\u5ffd\u89c6\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n
\u3000\u3000\u200d<\/p>\n
\u3000\u3000\u751f\u6d3b\u4e2d\u6709\u5f88\u591a\u5728\u4e00\u591c\u4e4b\u95f4\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u60b2\u5267\uff0c\u4f46\u5f88\u5c11\u6709\u5728\u4e00\u591c\u4e4b\u95f4\u8bde\u751f\u7684\u5947\u8ff9\u3002<\/p>\n
\u3000\u3000\u4e00\u76f4\u4ee5\u6765\uff0c\u4eba\u4eec\u90fd\u68a6\u60f3\u7740\u6709\u671d\u4e00\u65e5\u4eba\u7c7b\u4f1a\u50cf\u9e1f\u513f\u4e00\u6837\u5728\u5929\u7a7a\u7ff1\u7fd4\uff0c\u4f46\u5728 1889 \u5e74 1 \u6708 5 \u65e5\uff0c\u300a\u5e95\u7279\u5f8b\u81ea\u7531\u65b0\u95fb\u62a5\u300b\uff08Detroit<\/em> Free<\/em> Press<\/em>\uff09\u6279\u5224\u4e86\u8fd9\u79cd\u60f3\u6cd5\u3002\u8be5\u62a5\u53d1\u8868\u6587\u7ae0\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u4eba\u4eec\u5173\u4e8e\u98de\u673a\u7684\u8bbe\u60f3\u201c\u770b\u8d77\u6765\u662f\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u5b9e\u73b0\u7684\u201d\uff1a<\/p>\n
\n\u52a0\u4e0a\u5fc5\u8981\u7684\u71c3\u6599\u548c\u53d1\u52a8\u673a\uff0c\u4e00\u53f0\u98de\u884c\u88c5\u7f6e\u7684\u6700\u5c0f\u91cd\u91cf\u4e0d\u4f1a\u4f4e\u4e8e 300 \u78c5\u6216 400 \u78c5 \uff08\u2026\u2026\uff09\u4f46\u98de\u884c\u5bf9\u91cd\u91cf\u7684\u8981\u6c42\u662f\u6709\u4e0a\u9650\u7684\uff0c\u663e\u7136\u4e0d\u80fd\u8d85\u8fc7 50 \u78c5 \u3002\u8d85\u8fc7\u4e86\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6781\u9650\uff0c\u52a8\u7269\u5c31\u65e0\u6cd5\u98de\u884c\u3002\u5927\u81ea\u7136\u5df2\u7ecf\u8fbe\u5230\u4e86\u8fd9\u4e00\u6781\u9650\uff0c\u800c\u5c31\u7b97\u5927\u81ea\u7136\u5c3d\u6700\u5927\u7684\u52aa\u529b\uff0c\u4e5f\u65e0\u6cd5\u5c06\u5176\u8d85\u8d8a\u3002<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n
\u3000\u3000\u8fd9\u7bc7\u6587\u7ae0\u53d1\u8868 6 \u4e2a\u6708\u540e\uff0c\u5965\u7ef4\u5c14\u00b7\u83b1\u7279\uff08Orville Wright\uff09\u4ece\u9ad8\u4e2d\u9000\u5b66\uff0c\u6765\u5e2e\u54e5\u54e5\u5a01\u5c14\u4f2f\uff08Wilbur\uff09\u5728\u81ea\u5bb6\u540e\u9662\u7684\u5c0f\u68da\u91cc\u9020\u4e00\u53f0\u5370\u5237\u673a\u3002\u8fd9\u662f\u5144\u5f1f\u4fe9\u7b2c\u4e00\u6b21\u5408\u4f5c\u641e\u53d1\u660e\uff0c\u4f46\u4e0d\u4f1a\u662f\u6700\u540e\u4e00\u6b21\u3002<\/p>\n
\u3000\u3000\u5982\u679c\u6211\u4eec\u8981\u5217\u51fa 20 \u4e16\u7eaa\u6700\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u53d1\u660e\uff0c\u98de\u673a\u5c31\u7b97\u4e0d\u80fd\u6392\u5728\u9996\u4f4d\uff0c\u4e5f\u81f3\u5c11\u4f1a\u4f4d\u5217\u524d\u4e94\u3002\u98de\u673a\u8fd9\u9879\u53d1\u660e\u6539\u53d8\u4e86\u4e00\u5207\u3002\u5b83\u5f15\u53d1\u4e86\u4e16\u754c\u8303\u56f4\u5185\u7684\u5927\u6218\uff0c\u4e5f\u5bfc\u81f4\u4e86\u6218\u4e89\u7684\u7ed3\u675f\u3002\u5b83\u8fde\u63a5\u4e86\u4e16\u754c\uff0c\u7f29\u77ed\u4e86\u57ce\u5e02\u3001\u4e61\u6751\u3001\u5927\u6d0b\u548c\u5927\u6d32\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u8ddd\u79bb\u3002<\/p>\n
\u3000\u3000\u4f46\u5728\u83b1\u7279\u5144\u5f1f\u82e6\u5fc3\u5b64\u8be3\u5730\u5236\u9020\u4eba\u7c7b\u7b2c\u4e00\u67b6\u98de\u673a\u7684\u6545\u4e8b\u4e2d\uff0c\u5b58\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a\u6709\u8da3\u7684\u8f6c\u6298\u3002<\/p>\n
\u3000\u3000\u5728\u4ed6\u4eec\u8bd5\u98de\u6210\u529f\u540e\uff0c\u4f3c\u4e4e\u6ca1\u6709\u4eba\u6ce8\u610f\u5230\u8fd9\u4ef6\u4e8b\uff0c\u4e5f\u6ca1\u6709\u4eba\u5173\u5fc3\u3002<\/p>\n
\u3000\u3000\u5728 1952 \u5e74\u51fa\u7248\u7684\u8bb0\u5f55\u7f8e\u56fd\u5386\u53f2\u7684\u8457\u4f5c\u300a\u5927\u53d8\u9769\u65f6\u4ee3\u300b\uff08The<\/em> Big<\/em> Change<\/em>\uff09\u4e2d\uff0c\u5f17\u96f7\u5fb7\u91cc\u514b\u00b7\u5218\u6613\u65af\u00b7\u827e\u4f26\u5199\u9053\uff1a<\/p>\n
\n\u76f4\u5230\u51e0\u5e74\u540e\uff0c\u4eba\u4eec\u624d\u660e\u767d\u83b1\u7279\u5144\u5f1f\u6240\u4ece\u4e8b\u6d3b\u52a8\u7684\u610f\u4e49\u3002\u5f53\u65f6\u7684\u4eba\u4eec\u7b03\u4fe1\uff0c\u98de\u884c\u662f\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u529e\u5230\u7684\u4e8b\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u90a3\u4e9b\u5728 1905 \u5e74\u770b\u5230\u83b1\u7279\u5144\u5f1f\u5728\u4fc4\u4ea5\u4fc4\u5dde\u4ee3\u987f\u4e00\u5e26\u98de\u884c\u7684\u4eba\u4eec\u4ee5\u4e3a\uff0c\u81ea\u5df1\u770b\u5230\u7684\u4e00\u5b9a\u662f\u67d0\u79cd\u6beb\u65e0\u610f\u4e49\u7684\u628a\u620f\u2014\u2014\u5c31\u50cf\u4eca\u5929\u5927\u591a\u6570\u4eba\u5728\u770b\u5230\uff0c\u6bd4\u5982\u8bf4\uff0c\u5fc3\u7075\u611f\u5e94\u8868\u6f14\u65f6\u7684\u60f3\u6cd5\u4e00\u6837\u3002\u76f4\u5230 1908 \u5e74 5 \u6708\u2014\u2014\u8ddd\u79bb\u83b1\u7279\u5144\u5f1f\u7b2c\u4e00\u6b21\u98de\u884c\u5df2\u7ecf\u8fc7\u53bb\u5c06\u8fd1 4 \u5e74\u534a\u7684\u65f6\u5019\uff0c\u8d44\u6df1\u8bb0\u8005\u4eec\u624d\u88ab\u6d3e\u53bb\u4e86\u89e3\u4ed6\u4eec\u90fd\u505a\u4e86\u4e9b\u4ec0\u4e48\uff0c\u8d44\u6df1\u7f16\u8f91\u4eec\u624d\u5bf9\u8bb0\u8005\u53d1\u6765\u7684\u5174\u9ad8\u91c7\u70c8\u7684\u62a5\u9053\u786e\u4fe1\u65e0\u7591\uff0c\u5168\u4e16\u754c\u624d\u7ec8\u4e8e\u5982\u68a6\u521d\u9192\u5730\u53d1\u73b0\uff0c\u4eba\u7c7b\u5df2\u7136\u5b9e\u73b0\u4e86\u98de\u884c\u7684\u68a6\u60f3\u3002<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n
\u3000\u3000\u751a\u81f3\u5f53\u4eba\u4eec\u660e\u767d\u98de\u673a\u662f\u600e\u6837\u4e00\u79cd\u5947\u8ff9\u540e\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u4f9d\u7136\u4f4e\u4f30\u4e86\u5b83\u5f88\u591a\u5e74\u3002<\/p>\n
\u3000\u3000\u4e00\u5f00\u59cb\uff0c\u4eba\u4eec\u4e3b\u8981\u5c06\u5176\u770b\u4f5c\u4e00\u79cd\u519b\u4e8b\u6b66\u5668\uff0c\u540e\u6765\u53c8\u89c9\u5f97\u5b83\u662f\u4e13\u5c5e\u5bcc\u4eba\u7684\u73a9\u5177\uff0c\u518d\u540e\u6765\u53c8\u89c9\u5f97\u98de\u673a\u4e5f\u8bb8\u53ea\u80fd\u8fd0\u8f7d\u51e0\u4e2a\u4eba\u3002<\/p>\n
\u3000\u30001909 \u5e74\uff0c\u300a\u534e\u76db\u987f\u90ae\u62a5\u300b\uff08The<\/em> Washington<\/em> Post<\/em>\uff09\u5199\u9053\uff1a\u201c\u6c38\u8fdc\u4e0d\u4f1a\u6709\u5546\u7528\u8fd0\u8f93\u673a\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u4e1c\u897f\u51fa\u73b0\u3002\u8d27\u7269\u5c06\u7ee7\u7eed\u62d6\u7740\u7f13\u6162\u800c\u6c89\u91cd\u7684\u6b65\u4f10\u5728\u5bcc\u6709\u8010\u5fc3\u7684\u5927\u5730\u4e0a\u7a7f\u884c\u3002\u201d5 \u4e2a\u6708\u540e\uff0c\u7b2c\u4e00\u67b6\u8d27\u673a\u98de\u4e0a\u4e86\u5929\u7a7a\u3002<\/p>\n
\u3000\u3000\u8ba9\u6211\u4eec\u6765\u6bd4\u8f83\u4e24\u79cd\u73b0\u8c61\uff1a\u4e00\u79cd\u662f\u4eba\u4eec\u5728\u6f2b\u957f\u7684\u8ba4\u77e5\u89c9\u9192\u540e\u7ec8\u4e8e\u5bf9\u98de\u673a\u4ea7\u751f\u4e86\u4e50\u89c2\u6001\u5ea6\uff0c\u53e6\u4e00\u79cd\u5219\u662f\u4eba\u4eec\u4f1a\u6781\u4e3a\u8fc5\u901f\u5730\u5173\u6ce8\u67d0\u4e9b\u4f1a\u5f15\u53d1\u60b2\u89c2\u60c5\u7eea\u7684\u4e8b\u7269\uff0c\u6bd4\u5982\u4e00\u5bb6\u516c\u53f8\u7684\u7834\u4ea7\u3002<\/p>\n
\u3000\u3000\u6216\u8005\u662f\u4e00\u573a\u5927\u89c4\u6a21\u7684\u6218\u4e89\u3002<\/p>\n
\u3000\u3000\u6216\u8005\u662f\u4e00\u8d77\u98de\u673a\u4e8b\u6545\u3002\u4eba\u4eec\u4e4b\u6240\u4ee5\u4ece 1908 \u5e74\u8d77\u624d\u5f00\u59cb\u5927\u89c4\u6a21\u8c08\u8bba\u83b1\u7279\u5144\u5f1f\u7684\u98de\u673a\uff0c\u662f\u56e0\u4e3a\u5f53\u5e74\u6709\u4e00\u4f4d\u540d\u53eb\u6258\u9a6c\u65af\u00b7\u585e\u5c14\u798f\u91cc\u5947\uff08Thomas Selfridge\uff09\u7684\u9646\u519b\u4e2d\u5c09\u5728\u4e00\u6b21\u98de\u884c\u8868\u6f14\u4e2d\u4e27\u751f\u3002<\/p>\n
\u3000\u3000\u589e\u957f\u662f\u7531\u590d\u5229\u9a71\u52a8\u7684\uff0c\u800c\u590d\u5229\u901a\u5e38\u9700\u8981\u65f6\u95f4\u3002\u6bc1\u706d\u5374\u53ef\u80fd\u7531\u72ec\u7acb\u7684\u81f4\u547d\u56e0\u7d20\u5bfc\u81f4\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u5728\u5f88\u77ed\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u5185\u53d1\u751f\uff1b\u5b83\u4e5f\u53ef\u80fd\u7531\u5931\u53bb\u4fe1\u5fc3\u5f15\u53d1\uff0c\u800c\u4fe1\u5fc3\u53ef\u4ee5\u5728\u4e00\u77ac\u95f4\u5d29\u584c\u3002<\/p>\n
\u3000\u3000\u8868\u8fbe\u60b2\u89c2\u8bba\u8c03\u7684\u6587\u7ae0\u66f4\u5bb9\u6613\u5199\u4f5c\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u5176\u5185\u5bb9\u5f80\u5f80\u66f4\u6709\u65b0\u610f\uff0c\u4e14\u53ea\u9700\u8981\u5173\u6ce8\u6700\u8fd1\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u4e8b\u4ef6\u3002\u4e50\u89c2\u7684\u53d9\u8ff0\u5219\u9700\u8981\u56de\u987e\u6f2b\u957f\u7684\u5386\u53f2\u548c\u4e8b\u7269\u53d1\u5c55\u7684\u8fdb\u7a0b\uff0c\u800c\u4eba\u4eec\u603b\u4f1a\u5fd8\u8bb0\u8fd9\u4e9b\u4e8b\uff0c\u5e76\u9700\u8981\u82b1\u5f88\u5927\u7684\u529b\u6c14\u624d\u80fd\u5c06\u5206\u6563\u7684\u4e8b\u5b9e\u8054\u7cfb\u8d77\u6765\u3002<\/p>\n
\u3000\u3000\u60f3\u60f3\u6211\u4eec\u5728\u533b\u5b66\u9886\u57df\u53d6\u5f97\u7684\u8fdb\u6b65\u5427\u3002\u53ea\u56de\u987e\u8fc7\u53bb 1 \u5e74\u95f4\u7684\u8fdb\u6b65\u662f\u6ca1\u4ec0\u4e48\u610f\u4e49\u7684\u3002\u5355\u72ec\u62ff\u51fa\u67d0\u4e2a 10 \u5e74\u6765\u770b\u4e5f\u610f\u4e49\u4e0d\u5927\u3002\u4f46\u5982\u679c\u770b\u770b\u8fc7\u53bb 50 \u5e74\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5c31\u4f1a\u53d1\u73b0\u4e00\u4e9b\u975e\u51e1\u7684\u6210\u5c31\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u6839\u636e\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u7acb\u536b\u751f\u7814\u7a76\u9662\uff08National Institute of Health\uff09\u7684\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u81ea 1965 \u5e74\u4ee5\u6765\uff0c\u5728\u7f8e\u56fd\uff0c\u5fc3\u810f\u75c5\u7684\u5e74\u9f84\u522b\u6b7b\u4ea1\u7387 \u5df2\u7ecf\u4e0b\u964d\u4e86 70% \u4ee5\u4e0a\u3002 70% \u7684\u964d\u5e45\u610f\u5473\u7740\u6bcf\u5e74\u90fd\u8db3\u8db3\u6709 50 \u4e07\u4eba\u7684\u751f\u547d\u88ab\u633d\u6551\u3002\u5bf9\u6bd4\u4e00\u4e9b\u5927\u57ce\u5e02\u7684\u4eba\u53e3\uff0c\u6765\u611f\u53d7\u4e00\u4e0b\u6bcf\u5e74\u88ab\u633d\u6551\u7684\u751f\u547d\u6709\u591a\u4e48\u591a\u5427\u3002\u4f46\u56e0\u4e3a\u8fd9\u4e2a\u8fc7\u7a0b\u8fdb\u5c55\u5f97\u5f88\u7f13\u6162\uff0c\u5b83\u5f15\u8d77\u7684\u5173\u6ce8\u8981\u5c0f\u4e8e\u6050\u6016\u88ad\u51fb\u3001\u98de\u673a\u5931\u4e8b\u6216\u81ea\u7136\u707e\u5bb3\u7b49\u7a81\u53d1\u4e8b\u4ef6\u5bfc\u81f4\u7684\u635f\u5931\u6240\u5f15\u8d77\u7684\u3002\u7f8e\u56fd\u5c31\u7b97\u6bcf\u5468\u90fd\u906d\u9047 5 \u6b21\u5361\u7279\u91cc\u5a1c\u98d3\u98ce \u2014\u2014\u60f3\u8c61\u4e00\u4e0b\uff0c\u8fd9\u4f1a\u5438\u5f15\u591a\u5927\u7684\u5173\u6ce8\u5ea6\u2014\u2014\u5728\u4e00\u5e74\u5185\u7684\u603b\u6b7b\u4ea1\u4eba\u6570\u4e5f\u65e0\u6cd5\u62b5\u6d88\u8fc7\u53bb\u534a\u4e2a\u4e16\u7eaa\u91cc\u8fd9 70% \u7684\u964d\u5e45\u80cc\u540e\u6bcf\u5e74\u88ab\u633d\u6551\u7684\u751f\u547d\u6570\u91cf\u3002<\/p>\n
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\u3000\u3000\u5728\u8206\u8bba\u573a\u4e0a\uff0c\u60b2\u89c2\u4e3b\u4e49\u7684\u77ed\u6682\u75db\u82e6\u5927\u884c\u5176\u9053\uff0c\u4e50\u89c2\u4e3b\u4e49\u7684\u5f3a\u5927\u62c9\u529b\u5374\u65e0\u4eba\u5728\u610f\u3002<\/p>\n
\u3000\u3000\u8fd9\u518d\u6b21\u51f8\u663e\u4e86\u6211\u4eec\u4e4b\u524d\u8c08\u5230\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u89c2\u70b9\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u6027\uff1a\u5728\u6295\u8d44\u4e2d\uff0c\u4f60\u5fc5\u987b\u8ba4\u8bc6\u5230\u6210\u529f\u7684\u4ee3\u4ef7\u2014\u2014\u5728\u957f\u671f\u589e\u957f\u7684\u80cc\u666f\u4e0b\u51fa\u73b0\u7684\u6ce2\u52a8\u548c\u635f\u5931\u2014\u2014\u5e76\u505a\u597d\u4e3a\u5176\u4e70\u5355\u7684\u51c6\u5907\u3002<\/p>\n
\n\u3000\u30002004 \u5e74\uff0c\u300a\u7ebd\u7ea6\u65f6\u62a5\u300b\u91c7\u8bbf\u4e86\u79d1\u5b66\u5bb6\u65af\u8482\u82ac\u00b7\u970d\u91d1\uff08Stephen Hawking\uff09\u3002\u970d\u91d1\u60a3\u6709\u65e0\u6cd5\u6cbb\u6108\u7684\u8fd0\u52a8\u795e\u7ecf\u5143\u75be\u75c5\uff0c\u4ece 21 \u5c81\u8d77\u4fbf\u8eab\u4f53\u762b\u75ea\uff0c\u65e0\u6cd5\u8bb2\u8bdd\u3002<\/p>\n
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